Does the West Texas Fair Really Bring Rain to Abilene? I Checked the Numbers

Every September, the West Texas Fair & Rodeo comes rolling into Abilene with carnival rides, livestock, fried food, and, according to practically everybody in town, a dang good chance of rain.

I’ve heard it forever: “The Fair is coming, so you know it’s going to rain.” Honestly, it sure feels true. But does the Fair really bring rain, or do we just remember the years we were eating funnel cakes in a mud pit?

Get our free mobile app

It Really Does Rain In Abilene During the West Texas Fair

an amusement park with a ferris wheel and rides

I looked at historical Abilene-area precipitation data from Open-Meteo, using September 5–14 as a consistent Fair window from 2000 through 2025. Some measurable rain fell during that stretch in 24 of those 26 years. That’s about 92% of the time, which is pretty freaking convincing.

The ten-day period averaged around 0.91 inches of rain, although the median was closer to 0.33 inches. A few extremely soggy years pulled that average way up.

So yes, our memories are basically correct: When the Fair comes to Abilene, rain usually shows up somewhere along the way.

Is the Fair Actually Summoning Thunderstorms?

circus underneath cumulus clouds

Not exactly. The Ferris wheel isn’t controlling the atmosphere, although I’m not completely ruling it out.

According to the National Weather Service, Abilene normally receives 2.67 inches of rain in September. It’s already one of those months when summer moisture starts running into stronger cold fronts and our weather gets a little weird.

MORE: Cisco College Taking Over West Texas Fair & Rodeo

A Fair-window day was rainy approximately 27% of the time, compared with around 26% during the rest of September. So the Fair period isn’t magically wetter. It’s just a ten-day event sitting right in the middle of a naturally storm-friendly month.

When Is West Texas Fair In Abilene?

Photo by: Taylor County Expo/Rochelle Johnson

This year’s West Texas Fair & Rodeo runs September 10–19. Go enjoy the rides, rodeo, and questionable amounts of fried food, but maybe throw an umbrella in the car.

History says we’ll probably need the darn thing. But hey, we need the rain, so bring it!