Accurate Or Not, NWS Warnings Missed In Deadly Weather Event

Ask anyone living in Oklahoma, the National Weather Service is pretty notorious for issuing rather conservative forecasts when severe weather events approach.

At least the NWS forecasts always appear to be somewhat reserved compared to what the news media puts out.

Could it be the news media is trying to hype up severe weather since that's the only ratings draw in 2025? We've talked about the overselling of severe weather odds all tornado season, but it's coming full circle after the weekend Texas had in the Hill Country.

After an issued forecast in the Texas Hill Country of heavy rain rolling into the Fourth of July, the weather took a turn for the worse in the overnight hours, catching everyone off guard.

Instead of the 5-6 inches predicted, the most affected areas received nearly 15. Even though the area was very dry, flood watches and warnings went out as expected, but nobody was awake in the overnight hours to heed the warnings.

We all watched the horrors unfold through social media and the news. Days later, the death toll is around 80 people.

Blame for the National Weather Service. 

The NWS started catching the blame almost immediately. Then the DOGE cuts and President Trump were caught up in the mix. I suppose that's human nature, we have to assign blame to every tragic event that happens, but as the picture clears, it seems it was just bad timing of a horrible storm.

The mix of middle-of-the-night rain and flooding events, along with the backlog of issued reports, watches, and warnings, has cleared the National Weather Service of any wrongdoing.

Was the forecast wrong? 

The amount of rain may have been wrong, by a long shot, but the warnings about potential flooding were there before it all began.

In our darkest moments, we naturally lash out and assign blame, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime weather event. Mother Nature waits for no man.

Will this change the way NWS issues forecasts? 

Not likely. Predicting the weather is notoriously challenging. Nobody can predict the future, and the NWS certainly gets it wrong as much as news media meteorologists do. It's just that they normally spell doom and gloom for nothing much to happen, so when they're wrong, we're usually glad.

The search for victims continues today, and likely over the next few weeks. A very wide portion of Texas was affected, and it's going to take time to heal these wounds.